Predictive Precision, Part II: Profections and Returns

I noted in the first part of this series that I propose to look at my positive COVID test on Christmas Day 2021 through the lens of several predictive techniques, modern and traditional, to explore the question of predictive precision in each technique. The first post looked at the notion of “echoes” between solar arcs and transits, and demonstrated the capacity for predictive precision pointing at a likely heath issue around New Year’s Day 2022. So it was within a week–altogether not bad. I’d like to look now at the same positive COVID test through the lens of annual profections and solar returns, specifically techniques outlined by the Medieval Arabic astrologer Abu Mashar in his monumental book, On the Revolutions of the Years of the Nativities.

I will start with a look at what my profected natal ascendent and profected Lot of Fortune suggest for the year 2021-2022, and add to that the themes suggested in the 2021-2022 solar return chart. Then, we will look at the technique of distributing the SR Ascendent at a rate of 59’ 08” daily to see how precisely it prefigured a noteworthy illness at Christmas. What I think you will find is that the combination of profections and the solar return offer a very clear and consistent list of topicsthat will feature in my life during 2021-2022, including illness, each of which at this writing has indeed proven central to the story of my year. Additionally, I will offer two separate monthly profection techniques which each point at virtually the same date in December as likely to involve an illness or injury–both of which were within a few days of when I began experiencing COVID symptoms. Finally, I’ll look at ways that we might tweak these monthly techniques to refine their predictive capacity to within 24 hours of an event in question.

Profecting the Natal ASC and LOF

Abu Mashar outlines his approach to annual profections largely in Book II of On the Revolutions. This is a whole-sign technique, focused on advancing the natal Ascendent and Lot of Fortune one sign per year and interpreting the sign of their “terminal point” and its lord, or ruler, as dispositive of the themes and quality defining that year of the person’s life. The technique runs from birthday to birthday, rather than on calendar years, and so is based on age. A full assessment of the annual profection considers the topics of the place, or house, associated with the terminal sign of the year for both Ascendent and Lot of Fortune. The whole sign aspects of the seven traditional planets to the sign of the year are suggestive of the quality of that year, and of the areas of support or challenge facing the individual. If the Lord of the Year–or that of the Lot–rules two signs in the chart, then the topics of the second sign are incorporated into the list of themes comprising the predictive prospects for that year, as are those of the place where the lord is located. Planets located in the sign of the year are important, suggesting issues that feature with particular immediacy that year in the life of the native. Finally, we assess the condition of the lord itself, its sect status, identity as fortune or infortune, and any dignities or counter-dignities, as well as its closest aspect in the nativity. Any overlapping or repeated topics or qualities are noted, and the whole is correlated with the client and what he or she anticipates is the most likely manifestation of these themes in the coming year.

Applying this approach to my nativity, we see that issues of illness and physical health stand out among the key topics of the year. The chart on the left is my nativity, and that on the right is my solar return for 2021. I turned 55 in April 2021, so we are looking at an 8th place Virgo profection of the Ascendent. I’ve highlighted the sign of the year in green, and circled the Lord of the Year, Mercury, in a matching green circle. A quick look at the whole-sign aspects to Virgo finds three of the seven traditional planets–Venus, the Sun, and Mars–in aversion, that is, they cannot “see” the sign and so have no measurable relationship to it. The Moon, for its part, is in the sign. Only Saturn, Mercury, and Jupiter aspect the sign by Ptolomeic aspects, the first two in opposition, the latter by square. The suggestion is that this year will likely stand out for its delays, obstacles, and frustrations, but that opportunities will exist as well for growth and recognition if those obstacles are managed effectively.

Mercury as Lord of the Year is in the 2nd place, also rules the 5th place, and its closest aspect is the conjunction with Saturn, lord of the 1st and 12th. It is also the infortune contrary to sect, as this is a nocturnal chart. Mercury is in fall in Pisces, albeit supported slightly by mutual reception with Jupiter in detriment in the 5th. This is not at all a great situation for the Lord of the Year, and reiterates the theme of setbacks and problems surrounding this year. Normally, we would only consider the one aspect with Saturn, but here the mutual reception with Jupiter nuances the nature of Mercury in fall, stressing again the notion of potential growth within a year of challenge and difficulty. Potential setbacks seem likely to involve the areas ruled by Saturn especially–isolation or loss (12th place), physical health (1st place), and personal finances (Mercury in fall in the 2nd, ruling the 8th), and there is a strong suggestion of illness (Moon in 8th ruling the 6th of illness/injury) that echoes Saturn’s rulership of the 1st place. Additional themes we would anticipate seeing would be mortality and death (8th), as well as children and creativity (5th).

Profecting the Lot of Fortune in the same manner, we reach the 3rd place–Aries–containing Mars, the lord of the Lot, in its domicile conjoined with the Sun exalted in Aries. Mars also rules the 10 place and MC. There seems to be a separate story here, then, of possible accomplishment or recognition in areas involving alternatively communication/study, and professional or reputational matters. The difference here is that the story of the Lot will likely involve issues and decisions outside our own direct control or supervision, whereas those defined by the profected Ascendent will be the outcome of our own initiative, and will involve clearer implications for our physical or spiritual condition.

Themes of the Solar Return

The themes outlined above will define *each* 8th place profection in my life, not simply those I deal with at age 55. Indeed, if I go back 12 years to age 43, these themes definitely describe the “story of the year,” and offer a hint at what I might expect this year. This is one of the wonderful opportunities of the profections technique–it allows us to look back in twelve-year cycles to learn from the lessons of the past what to anticipate now and in the future. Still, Abu Mashar felt that it was essential to read profections alongside the solar return of the year to assess how this particular 8th place profection might differ in degree or quality from those in the past.

I have put the solar return chart next to the nativity above to make it easier to cross-reference of solar return placements back to the nativity. This tenis game of moving back and forth between the two charts is central to solar return analysis. This can get extremely convoluted if one tries to get too comprehensive, so it is important to pick a handful of key points and focus on those. Abu Mashar recommends focusing on the three Ascendents–natal, profected, and solar return (SR), as well as their lords, and the closest aspect to each. In addition to these six points, we will look as well at the SR Lot of Fortune and its lord. The two charts above are colored to make this analysis easier. I have colored the sign of the natal Ascendent blue, the profected Ascendent green, and the SR Ascendent yellow. The sign of the profected Lot of Fortune is pink.

We will start by noting that Cancer is rising in the SR chart for 2021, which is the sign of my 6th natal place. Immediately, we see that issues of illness or injury will likely feature this year. The lord of the SR ASC, the Moon, is in the SR 6th place, reemphasizing this theme for the year. Turning to the sign of the profected Ascendent, we see that Virgo is in the 3rd place of the SR chart, blending the issues of communication, study, close friends and siblings with those of its natal 8th place, namely mortality, business, joint property. Notice as well, that Mercury, the lord of Virgo, is located in the SR 9th, raising themes of advanced education, among other things. Moreover, its closest aspect is the square to the Moon in the SR 6th, lord of the SR Ascendent. Already, then, we are seeing strong restatements of several key themes outlined in the profection for this year–possible illness, death of close friends and family, advanced study of business.

Lastly, Aquarius, the sign of the natal Ascendent, is located in the SR 8th with its lord, Saturn, firmly restating the themes of this year’s 8th place profection–mortality, business, joint property, and linking them with the longer term issues tied to my natal Ascendent, including physical health. Its closest aspect is the sextile to the Sun exalted in the 10th place of profession and reputation, suggesting the themes for the year of professional growth suggested by the profected Lot of Fortune. Still, the connection of the long term issues of my physical health represented by my natal Ascendent, with the 8th place issues of mortality suggested in the SR chart accentuate the immediacy of the issue of illness this year.

Turning to the SR Lot of Fortune, we find it in the SR 9th place with Mercury, the Lord of the Year, once again emphasizing among other things the issues of advanced education that we know have been central to my professional life this year. Its lord, Jupiter, is back in the SR 8th, tied up with my natal Ascendent and its lord. The closest aspect to Jupiter in the SR chart is its sextile to the Moon in the 6th place, offering some hopefulness for good outcomes in the issue of illness and injury, and reemphasizing the opportunity for personal recognition and growth this year–since the Moon is the lord of the SR Ascendent. One remaining consideration is to look at the closest aspect that the Lord of the Year makes from the SR chart to the nativity. The closest aspect from Mercury in the SR 9th is the trine to my natal Midheaven, once again reemphasizing the prospect of professional education this year.

I have offered a fairly comprehensive overview of the themes of this year to show the technique in play and how the issues of illness, isolation, and physical health are woven through it alongside the other key themes of the year–especially mortality and professional training. As a statement of the key themes of the year, the combination of profection and solar return have proven remarkably prescient. As I mentioned at the outset of this post, in the area of illness, I contracted COVID and as of this writing have spent nearly a week in quarantine. As for mortality, after having not attended a funeral in many years, this year I attended three in a single month, and four as of December, all close friends and relatives. Professionally, I began an Executive Education program at Harvard Business School that very ably reflects the themes–and good fortune–suggested by the profection of the Lot to Aries. There have also been additional financial issues, and developments surrounding my children and creative pursuits that I won’t expound in detail. So the themes have been accurate. Let’s turn now to the question of timing, in particular, of timing my positive COVID test.

Distributing the Solar Return

As late as mid-December, I had not experienced any evident illness or injury to speak of beyond a brief cold that took me out of work for a few days in July. Meanwhile the immediacy of the Moon, lord of the 6th place of illness/injury, located in the sign of the profection was a strong suggestion that I could expect something rather more noteworthy. My natal 6th place sign Cancer rising in the solar return chart, with its lord, the Moon, in the SR 6th reinforced this sense that something more was likely. But when?

Abu Mashar offers a considerable range of monthly predictive techniques to narrow down the likely occasion of annual profections and solar returns. One of the most intriguing–and perhaps most effective–involves distributing the SR Ascendent through the bounds of that chart at a rate of 59’ 08” per day, rather than the normal rate of a degree per year used with the nativity. This accelerated rate moves the Ascendent through the entire 360 degrees of the solar return chart within the space of one year. In the process it makes the full range of aspects with each of the positions in the chart, unfolding its themes day by day. The challenge with this technique is knowing when one is looking at the typical mundane developments of one’s year, and when something more meaningful is prefigured. While Abu Mashar suggests it is possible to do a full distribution through the bounds with this technique, it is simpler to ignore the distributor, focusing only on the aspects to the partner planets, in the manner of a primary direction.

The modern Traditional astrologer Ben Dykes has suggested we focus our attention on the periods when the distributed Ascendent is passing through the sign of the profected Ascendent, or through those angular to it, as well as on aspects from the Ascendent to the Lord of the Year, particularly within those signs. To this recommendation, I would suggest as well that we look for aspects, particularly conjunctions, squares, and oppositions, from the Ascendent to planets ruling, or in, the places associated with topics we have determined to be key to that year. In this case, if inquiring about the prospect of illness or injury, we would look to any aspects involving hard aspects to Jupiter, the lord of the SR 6th place, or to the Moon, which is located there. With respect to orb, Dykes suggests we allow 48 hours on either side of the partile aspect from the Ascendent to the partner planet. This affords less than two degrees applying and separating. I will suggest a slightly wider orb below for reasons that I believe are consistent with the general approach to interpreting natal distributions.

Please refer below to a portion of the distribution of the SR Ascendent from the 2021 solar return chart already included above. Within the green box, you will see where the directed Ascendent conjoined Jupiter, lord of the SR 6th place of illness and injury, on the afternoon of December 18. If we allow an additional 48 hours after this, we reach the afternoon of December 20. I began experiencing COVID symptoms most likely at some point on December 22, roughly two days later, suggesting that I contracted the illness on December 20 or 21. This suggests that the technique was accurate within a window of precision of 2-4 days. Not bad at all.

Still, I would like to suggest that it may be possible to narrow this a bit by interpreting these distributions the same way we would look at natal distributions or primary directions. These techniques look at the partner planet or promittor as time lords that preside over a period of the native’s life until another partner/promittor takes its place. In the case of the conjunction with Jupiter, its correlations would continue through the period extending from December 18 until January 2, when the square to Mars took over. During this two week period, we note that on December 22, the distributed Ascendent moved from Aquarius into Pisces–a sign that is angular from Virgo, my profected sign of the year. As noted above, Ben Dykes has suggested that we pay particular attention to periods when the distributed Ascendent is moving through the sign of the year or its angles. It is intriguing, then, that I began experiencing COVID symptoms on December 22, as the distributed SR Ascendent moved into Pisces, and Jupiter, lord of the SR 6th of illness and injury, remained as the partner/promittor.

This technique is still comparatively new to the astrological community, like virtually all of Abu Mashar’s monthly predictive techniques, which were never translated into Latin, and so did not become part of the Western tradition that ran through the Middle Ages and the Renaissance. In terms of predictive precision, we can at least say that it is accurate within a four day window, and very likely less than that if one considers when I actually contracted COVID. Moreover, if my own expansion of Dykes’s 48 hour window to include the full extent of the partner/promittor’s tenure as time lord, we may be able to use sign changes to narrow the window to one day with further research.

December Monthly Return

Another of the monthly techniques outlined in Abu Mashar is the use of Montly Return (MR) charts cast for the moment that the Sun advances exactly 30 degrees from its natal position, and then every 30 degrees after that. This results in twelve monthly charts in which the position of the Sun is semi-sextile, sextile, square, trine, quincunx, or opposed to its natal position. This chart is interpreted in a method similar to that used for the solar return chart, complete with cross-references back to the SR chart and nativity, but also assessing its own internal logic.

Further experience with this technique will suggest short-cuts for knowing which monthly charts stand out as most significant. I would like to propose one approach that sifts through them quickly, and seemingly reliably by focusing on a few stand-out factors. To begin with, pay attention to any chart that has a planet conjoining one of the angles–ASC, DSC, MC, or IC, as well as those that have advancing in an angular quadrant house. When I use this technique, I use Alcibitius Semi-Arc houses. Pay particular attention to charts where the profected LOY or the lord of the MR Ascendent is angular and/or advancing. To this, I would add that if you are looking at a particular topic–as we are here at illness–be conscious of charts that highlight that topic. Let me use my December 2021 Monthly Return as an example.

Even before I came down with COVID in late December, this chart stood out as one of the more significant of the year for several of the reasons I outline above. Let’s start with the presence of Saturn, angular and advancing, conjunct the Descendent. Only six of my twelve MR charts this year have planets conjoining one of the angles. Of those, only two involve the planet ruling the 6th place of the MR chart, December 2021 and March 2022. So if I’m going to be looking for key developments of any kind this year, I might look more closely at the six with planets on the angles. If I’m looking specifically at health concerns, prompted by the themes of the profection and solar return chart, I’ll focus on the two months that have the MR 6th place lords on those angles.

Once we start looking more closely at the December MR chart, other indications stand out. Saturn is not only advancing and conjoined to an angle, but it is also the planet that closest aspects the LOY--Mercury, which, in Sagittarius, is both detriment and under the rays, suggesting some difficulties with key topics of the annual profection this month. The conjunction of Mercury and the Sun also brings together closely the two most important planets in the chart–the LOY and lord of the Ascendent, a further suggestion that this month will involve noteworthy developments, and that they could involve physical health (ASC) issues. The sextiles of both to Saturn, lord of the 6th may suggest to us the opportunity for a decent recovery, with sufficient care. Sextiles never hand us good outcomes–they offer us the opportunity to work for them.

One last consideration is that Cancer is in the 12th place in this MR chart. You might recall from our earlier analysis that Cancer is the sign on my natal 6th, and that its appearance as the Ascendent of the annual SR chart reinforced the notion of my having health problems this year. Its appearance on the cusp of the 12th in the MR chart suggests the connection between my health and isolation or quarantine. If we had been looking for indications of poor health this year, this might easily have suggested that prospect in December well before we had known I would contract COVID.

Abu Mashar recommends advancing the Ascendent of the MR chart at an average rate of 2.5 days pers sign, or 60 degrees every five days. This would advance the December MR Ascendent to conjoin Saturn, lord of the 6th place, roughly on December 19, almost exactly the same day that the annual SR Ascendent conjoined Jupiter, the lord of the SR 6th place. As noted, this would put it roughly a day or two off when I likely contracted COVID, and about 72 hours shy of when I started experiencing symptoms. Not at all bad. We could call it a day there, and say good enough for government work. However, I think we can get even more precise than that.

If we distribute the MR chart with Janus the same way we did the annual SR chart in the previous section, and then divide the result by 12, we can convert annual movement into a single month. Janus is not configured to distribute the monthly charts within the space of 30 days, so we are simply equating the increment of 59’ 08” with two-hour increments rather than one day increments. There are twelve of these in each monthly day, and 360 in each 30-day month. When dealing with months of either 31, 29, or 28 days, we would obviously have to build in some flexibility of “orb,” expecting that we could be off by a day or two.

Let’s look at the annual distribution of the December MR chart below The MR ASC conjoins the MR Saturn after 221° 42’ 32” of arc. If we divide this by 12, we get 18° 28’ 33”, or about 18 and a half days. The chart was cast for December 4, so this puts the MR Ascendent conjunct Saturn on the morning of December 23. It was that morning that I first consciously asked myself whether the cough I had had since the previous day might actually be COVID. As we know now, it was.

Try this out in your own MR charts, and see if the distributions/12 technique doesn't work better than the estimate of 2.5 days per sign. Maybe I'm just reinventing the wheel here. But I think that taking advantage of the greater precision of ascensional times that is part of the distributions approach will give us greater accuracy in prediction. The challenge is simply knowing what aspects we should be looking at. I suggest hard aspects of the ASC to the angular planets in the MR chart, especially those within 5 degrees of the angles.

What Can We Learn From This Study?

The combination of annual profections of the natal Ascendent and Lot of Fortune, alongside the insights of the solar return chart, provide perhaps one of the strongest techniques in astrology for prefiguring the key themes and quality an individual will experience in any given year. Used as part of a dialogue with a client about the experience of similar profections in twelve-year cycles, as well as modern annual techniques like solar arcs and progressions, this combination of Traditional techniques “sets the stage” of the year.

With respect to timing, the combination of distributing the solar return to identify key periods within that year is very promising, particularly if one has particular topics in mind, such as our investigation here into the repeated suggestions of illness in my life this year. It is fascinating that distributing the solar return chart of 2021 brought the SR Ascendent to a conjunction with Jupiter, the lord of the SR 6th place of illness and injury on virtually the same day that the same distribution technique of the December MR Ascendent advanced it to conjoin Saturn, lord of the MR 6th place. It is even more remarkable that the dates suggested by these two separate techniques were each within a few days of when I contracted COVID and began experiencing its symptoms. Notably here, the astrology pointed not at when I tested positive, but rather at the point when I contracted the illness and was still unconscious of this fact. The astrology tells us not what I’m conscious of, but rather what is happening unbeknownst to me.

The process itself of interpreting the distributions of the solar and monthly return charts is admittedly a work in progress, owing to the comparatively recent recovery of these techniques only in the past few years. This essay has been a part of that effort, to see what best practices we might glean from it and apply to other case studies. The two key questions I’ve tried to look at are 1) how do we narrow our focus down from an annual “story” to key months for any given issue, or just in general for especially important periods; and 2) how do we narrow our focus within those key months to the weeks, or even the days, when we might expect signal events of the year?

Ben Dykes has suggested we pay careful attention to the periods when the distributed SR Ascendent is moving through the profected sign of the year or the signs angular to it, that is, in the same quadruplicity. He also suggests we look at aspects from the distributed Ascendent to the Lord of the Year in the SR chart, and even to its natal position. I suggest as well that we consider the aspects to the planets in question to be “live” for as long as it takes for the distributed SR Ascendent to make its next aspect, however long that takes. During that time, if it enters or leaves the sign of the year or its quadruplicity, that may be the key moment of the aspect, rather than its partile engagement. This was the case above when the SR Ascendent entered Pisces on December 22, several days after conjoining Jupiter, the lord of the SR 6th, and I began experiencing COVID symptoms on that day. As for which aspects to consider, conjunctions seem most noteworthy in theory, but practice with this technique in other cases suggests attention to squares and oppositions as well. Things happen under hard aspects.

While the solar return chart can offer suggestions on what times of the year might be especially important, I have also suggested some short-cuts for running quickly through the monthly return charts themselves, focusing on those that have angular and advancing planets, especially those that are germane to specific topics of interest. The December MR chart was one such example, being only one of two in the year that have the lord of the 6th conjoining an angle, and being the only one with that planet either conjunct or opposed to the Ascendent, the focal point of physical health in the chart. Other key planets on the angles suggesting an important month might be the lord of the MR Ascendent or the LOY.

When assessing the timing of the monthly return, while Abu Mashar’s estimation of 2.5 days per sign, or 60 degrees per five days did get us withing a few days of my COVID infection, the distribution of the MR chart got us to the point when I was first experiencing symptoms. It is worth exploring this technique that Abu Mashar seems to have reserved for the solar return chart in our work with the monthly returns as well, to see if we can narrow our predictive precision down to within 24 hours of key events.

In contrast to the performance of the modern solar arc and transits technique in Part I of this COVID case study, we can say that profections and returns offer what amounts to a more detailed annual forecast, with its variety of key themes, but only slightly more timing precision. The solar arc of SA Ma=Mo and the December 4 solar eclipse squaring my natal Moon, lord of the natal 6th, both suggest some kind of health issue this year. Typically, eclipses are triggered by later transits, and the square of transiting Mars to the Moon at the end of December echoed the planetary combination of the solar arc as well. This transit pointed at a date roughly a week after I contracted COVID, whereas the solar and monthly distributions suggested dates that were a couple of days prior. Used in conjunction with one another, we might suggest in advance that illness seemed likely at some point in late December, between December 18 and January 1. As luck–or fate–would have it, the experience likely involved most of this period, having contracted the illness around December 20/21, experienced symptoms starting the 22nd, and going into quarantine December 25 through January 1.