Prospects of Invasion

Tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine standoff have been high for months, and are only getting worse in recent days. A number of mundane astrological techniques can be used to look at the prospect of a conflict in the coming weeks and months, including solar arcs, transits, and ingress charts. This post is purely intended to test the efficacy of these techniques in the prediction of mundane events, and should not be understood as a comprehensive assessment of the political situation on the ground, and still less of a firm position on what to expect. We are simply looking at what the techniques themselves suggest is most likely to occur in the coming weeks.

In fact, it is striking how similar the themes and the timing of likely turning points are between the various techniques. In the main, they seem to suggest the very real prospect of conflict in mid-February between a powerful Russian Federation and a comparatively weak Ukraine. If there is a noteworthy element that comes up in each technique, it is the prospect that a conflict would entail very real setbacks for the Russian Federation, at least in the coming months, and possibly enduring into the future. Those setbacks will most likely be economic, though the prospect of a spike in the national death rate is also possible. The possible influence of a war on the latter is admittedly difficult to distinguish astrologically, however, from the spike already occurring from Russia’s COVID experience.

A quick note first about the charts I am using. There are several possible natal charts for Ukraine and the Russian Federation. For Russia, I am using the chart for when the Minsk Agreement that dissolved the Soviet Union was announced publicly on December 8, 1991 at 7:45 pm local time. For Ukraine, I am using the moment when Ukraine declared itself independent on August 24, 1991 at 6:00 pm local time. Additionally, you will note below that I combine two different house systems–Placidus and Whole Sign Houses. This is because I typically use the house system that the technique most often employs, in an effort to be true to the technique. In the case of solar arcs and transits, I use Placidus houses. With ingress charts, where I am drawing on traditional interpretations, I use Whole Sign Houses. For this same reason, while I do use modern rulerships in the case of solar arcs and transits, I only use the traditional planets and their rulerships for the ingress charts.

Beijing Olympics Suggest a Pause

I am writing this at the start of February 2022, with news reports suggesting that Russia has nearly all the forces it would need for an invasion of Ukraine in place. While an invasion could occur at any moment, the political and strategic circumstances suggest that an open invasion, if one occurs at all, would not likely start before the middle of February, and not later than mid-March. The Olympics begin on February 3 in Beijing, China, and a wholesale invasion of Ukraine would distract international attention from the Games, which China has worked hard to showcase. Of course, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 during the last Beijing Olympics, so it has shown it will not respect any kind of Olympic truce. However, a second Russian invasion during another Beijing Olympics seems unlikely, in light of the close relationship that has developed between the two nations in recent years. This combination of considerations suggests that the Russians might delay a wholesale invasion of Ukraine until mid-February, at the conclusion of the Games. At the same time, if Russia is to benefit from the mechanized forces it has deployed to CSTO ally Belarus, it will need to act before mid-March when the Pripet Marsh that runs along the Belarus-Ukraine border thaws. While it is frozen, it affords a stable base for Russian tanks heading into Ukraine. When it thaws, it becomes very difficult for tanks to cross. This suggests that the window for Russian action that would include these forces is roughly February 15–March 15.

Solar Arcs

Here is the bi-wheel chart of Ukraine with its solar arcs on the outer ring:

The closest arc is SA Sa=Su, where Saturn rules the ASC, and the Sun co-rules the 7th of open enemies. There is clearly a suggestion that a conflict with open enemies that is already underway. There are a number of ways to sort out the rulerships at play here, and each offers a likely facet of how this standoff is likely to play out in the coming year during this arc. If we look at this as the restrictions and obstacles of Saturn making hard aspect to Ukraine’s Sun, we can anticipate this being a very challenging time, during which its capacity to exercise its own national self-determination will be circumscribed, blocked, or even ended. Looking at the Sun as the co-ruler of Ukraine’s 7th house, we are also looking at the prospect of setbacks, frustrations, and decline for Ukraine's open enemies, namely Russia. This really does set up a lose-lose situation. Meanwhile, if we look at this as the illuminating rays of the Sun spotlighting the ruler of Ukraine’s ASC, we see here the intensified attention and international sympathy that this standoff with Russia has garnered Ukraine. If the ASC is the “body” of Ukraine, it is noteworthy that this international attention has swirled primarily around the importance of respecting its territorial boundaries and national sovereignty. The opposition was partile in the second half of December, and will remain in orb for much of the coming year.

Let’s turn now to the solar arcs in the chart of the Russian Federation:

Here we see the Moon, ruler of the 12th, receiving a square from Jupiter, ruler of the 5th. Setting aside the 5th place rulership for the moment, it is tempting to see this as either expansion (Jupiter) of loss, or as gain through skullduggery and secret action (12th house). We might recall in this respect that the Russian army invaded Eastern Ukraine in 2014 under the guise of “Russian volunteers” or of “Russian Ukrainians,” who never wore patches on their uniforms. Eventually, Moscow dropped the ruse and admitted that, of course, the soldiers fighting in Eastern Ukraine were regulars from the Russian Army. The Moon is in the 6th here–ruling the Army–so it is tempting to see this again as a secretive use of the Russian Army.

Notice as well that SA Jupiter is applying within a degree to square Neptune. As Jupiter rules the 5th house of enjoyment, we might see an erosion of popular pastimes here over the coming year, whether due to additional COVID-related restrictions, or if broad international sanctions follow an invasion of Ukraine. There could also be an increase in escapism through alcohol, sex, or other private pursuits. The 5th house also rules diplomats and ambassadors, suggesting the prospect of hypocrisy and disingenuousness in its diplomatic negotiations with Ukraine and NATO. The idealism suggested in the Jupiter-Neptune square also suggests the prospect of speculative failure or overreach in foreign affairs, as Neptune is the modern ruler of the 9th house. This may reflect the “Slavic brotherhood” idealism that Moscow and Minsk are using to justify their pressure on Ukraine, while also suggesting the ultimate failure of this policy in time.

Transits

Let’s turn now to the transits facing the two national charts at the moment. In mid-February, Ukraine will see transiting Saturn square Pluto, the modern ruler of its MC–which is its government in mundane analysis. This is a very difficult aspect, suggesting serious challenges for the government at that time. At the same time, transiting Mars will conjoin Ukraine’s ASC, a suggestion of possible violence in the country. Ukraine has Neptune conjunct ASC in its natal chart, so this will be Tr Ma cnj Ne-ASC, which could suggest hostile subterfuge or special operations attacks in the country. Transiting Venus will conjoin the ASC as well at that time, making this Tr Ve-Ma cnj Ne-ASC, a possible indication of diplomacy at work alongside violence, or simply of idealistic nationalist passions shaping the situation in Ukraine. Certainly, if there were an invasion, we could anticipate that kind of explosion of nationalist passions as Ukrainians rush to defend their homeland.

Turning to Russia’s transits, the periods when we find hard aspects to the infortunes occur at the end of January, and then again in March, just before the next Aries ingress. In late January, transiting Jupiter squares Mars from Russia’s 8th house of death. Mars rules Russia’s MC, suggesting that while Ukraine’s government experiences the tremendous pressures and tension of transiting Saturn square Pluto, the Russian government may assert itself aggressively under transiting Jupiter square Mars. Also in January and February, Russia sees transiting Saturn conjoin its DSC and oppose its ASC. I propose that there are two equally valid ways to read this. On the one hand, transiting Saturn conjunct the 7th house cusp suggests weakness and constraints on one’s open enemies, that is, on Ukraine.

On the other hand, the opposition of transiting Saturn to the Russian ASC suggests a break of some kind on its ability to act freely, as well as difficult consequences that might follow its actions. By March, however, Russia will experience the same transit of Saturn to its own natal Pluto that Ukraine will have experienced for several months. Pluto is located in, and is the modern co-ruler of, Russia’s 4th house of the homeland. So it seems likely that by March circumstances in Russia could worsen considerably, including for its military, Saturn rules Russia's natal 6th house. Two possible scenarios that could explain this include the impact of international sanctions with a stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance if Russia does invade, or shifting climactic and international political circumstances delaying and constraining Russia’s opportunity to invade.

Ingress Charts

The standard mundane technique in traditional astrology is the Aries ingress chart, calculated usually for the location of a nation's capital city at the moment when the Sun enters Aries each year. In the Arabic tradition outlined by Abu Mashar and his contemporaries, if the Ascendant of the Aries ingress chart is a fixed sign, that chart is used to assess the whole year until the next Aries ingress. If it is double-bodied/mutable, the Aries ingress chart is used until the Sun enters Libra, at which point the Libra ingress chart is used for the balance of the year. If a convertible/cardinal sign is on the Aries ASC, then a new chart is calculated for each convertible/cardinal ingress, and that chart is used to assess the three months of that season only.

The 2021 Aries ingress chart for Kiev, Ukraine has a Cancer ASC, a convertible sign, indicating the need to calculate a new chart for each convertible ingress. The chart for December 2021–March 2022 is the Capricorn ingress. The first assessment of an ingress chart is to determine the Lord of the Chart, which Abu Mashar defines as the most angular and/or advancing planet in the chart. In Ukraine’s Capricorn ingress, the Lord of the Chart is the Moon, which is advancing in Cancer and conjunct the Ascendant. The Moon’s closest aspect is the opposition from Venus Rx in the 7th place of open enemies and war. Venus is the fortune of the sect in this night chart, and it rules the 11th place of allies and good fortune. As such opposition could be promising for the Moon, and for Ukraine, perhaps suggesting efforts at diplomatic engagement with its open enemy in the 7th–Russia. However, the Rx motion of Venus suggests either setbacks or unseen initiatives on the part of its competitor. This Rx motion could also suggest that disappointment with its friends and allies as well, in light of Venus ruling the 11th place. Its rulership of the the 4th place of the Ukrainian homeland, alongside its Rx motion, and the location of Venus in the house of open enemies, are not auspicious either. There are real indications here of a possible open conflict, damage to the Ukrainian homeland, and possible occupation or other territorial concessions. It should be noted that Russia occupied and annexed Crimea during its 2014 invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

Turning to the Lot of Fortune, we find it in the 6th place of the Ukrainian military, its health care situation, and its food supply. Jupiter is the lord of the Lot, and we find it peregrine in the 8th place of death, banking, and the national debt. This suggests real problems for the Ukrainian armed forces, a possible spike in the death rate from illness, and financial difficulties that could have an impact on its food resources. Jupiter is peregrine, suggesting dependency on others in these areas. Jupiter’s closest aspect is actually an out-of-sign square to the conjunction of the South Node and Mars in the 6th place, again of the armed forces and the food supply. While this is not technically considered a square in traditional astrology, it is not a promising indication for Ukraine. The Lot of Fortune corresponds to things that happen to us that are outside of our direct control. Hence, the out-of-sign square from Mars and the South Node suggests the possibility Ukraine could be the victim of aggression or violence. Traditional astrologer and Abu Mashar translator Benjamin Dykes includes the conjunction of Mars and the South Node as a key ingress chart indicator of potential war in his study of Medieval Arabic mundane techniques, Astrology and the World II.

The 2021 Aries ingress in Moscow, Russia, has a Virgo ASC, which is double-bodied, indicating the need to rely on the Libra ingress chart to assess Russia’s fortunes for the six months September 2021--March 2022. The Lord of the Chart is Jupiter Rx, as it conjoins the MC, and so is the most angular planet. The MC in the Russian Libra ingress has floated to the 8th place of death, the banking system, and national debt. Jupiter, meanwhile, rules the 9th place of foreign affairs and international law, as well as the 6th place of the military, public health, and food supply. The overall impression is that the Russian government (MC) will be focused this year on issues of foreign affairs/international law, as well as deployment and status of its military, and issues of public health or food supply. Rising mortality rates and challenging financial circumstances, possibly involving Russia's banking system, are also on the annual agenda with the MC in the 8th. Note that the Lot of Fortune is also in the 6th place, reemphasizing the topics of this house, and the importance of Jupiter Rx as its lord as well as being Lord of the Chart. The fact that Jupiter is Rx and conjoins the MC suggests setbacks, reversals, or hidden developments in these areas that could have a detrimental impact on the Russian government itself. The closest aspect to Jupiter Rx is the trine from Mercury in the 4th place of the homeland. Mercury rules the 12th place of loss, secret enemies, or covert activity, as well as the 3rd place of the media and propaganda. These areas of Russia’s national life are supporting, advancing, and reinforcing the themes represented above by Jupiter Rx conjunct MC.

The placement of the Lord of the Chart here, its conjunction with the 8th-place MC, its closest aspect from Mercury in the 4th place, and location of the Lot of Fortune in the 6th place, reflect very clearly the key themes of Russia’s national life this year. We see the focus of the Russian government, and its leader in particular, Vladimir Putin, on the deployment of the military to address a central foreign policy question where issues of international law (sovereignty) are on the line. We see as well the effective use of propaganda and the media to mobilize the public around a defense of the homeland, and the need to correct some national sense of loss. We’re reminded here of Putin’s claim in 2005 that the fall of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, something his current actions surrounding Ukraine seem designed to correct in part. It is worth noting as well that the White House in early February indicated that it had reliable intelligence that Russia was planning a “false flag” operation to broadcast video of an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian territory–using actors–that might justify Russia’s anticipated invasion of Ukraine. In this development we see the use of secret operations (12th place) and the media (3rd place) to advance an invasion of Ukraine (9th place) by the Russian military (6th place).

As an aside, we should recall that the issues surrounding Ukraine are not the only important development in Russia this year. Jupiter’s rulership of the 6th place of illness, its Rx motion and conjunction to the Libra ingress MC clearly suggest difficult reversals in public health issues this year. In fact, Russia reported a 33 percent spike in the death rate from COVID in October 2021, just after the Libra ingress, prompting President Putin to ask the entire country to stay home from work for a week. New quarantine restrictions were put into place across the country. In January 2022, Russia’s state statistics agency said 625,000 Russians had died from COVID since the start of the pandemics, one of the worst death rates in the world during the pandemic.

Alongside the Lord of the Chart and its closest aspect, we should also pay attention to the Sun-Mars conjunction in the 4th place of the homeland, as it squares the ASC of the Libra ingress chart. The Sun here is in its fall in Libra, and Mars is in its detriment and under the rays of the Sun, so this is a very inauspicious conjunction that suggests considerable difficulty for Russia’s homeland. The Sun in the chart rules the 2nd place of the nation’s economy, prefiguring reversals this year, in light of its being in fall and conjoined with Mars. Mars rules the 10th place of the Russian government, and the 5th place of national leisure. Planets in detriment typically do not function properly, and indeed can function immorally, and the issues associated with them may fall apart quickly rather than enduring. So we may see here that the actions of the Russian government are ill-advised, immoral, or compromised in some way, and that they are unlikely to have positive, enduring results. Similarly, the likely decline of the Russian economy–whether through COVID, natural business cycles, or international sanctions following an invasion of Ukraine–are likely to eclipse both the ability of the Russian people to enjoy their life, and the power of the Russian government in general. This will likely weaken the Russian homeland, as well as the general state of the country and its people, which is ruled by the ASC of the chart.

Finally, on the question, “Will there be war,” the square of Mars to the ASC of the Libra ingress suggests that hostilities are a real possibility. Admittedly, it is difficult to differentiate an actual war from the months of military exercises along the borders of Ukraine by more than 100,000 Russian troops, and even the deployment of many of those troops to Belarus for a possible two-front offensive. These are all aggressive actions, and could be what we are seeing in the square of Mars to the ASC in the Libra ingress. Moreover, if there is to be war, Mars is typically strong in the ingress chart, according to Abu Mashar. Here, Mars is very weak, perhaps suggesting that we will see more saber-rattling than drawn swords. What does seem likely, is that any use of force in this situation will contribute to Russia’s already very difficult circumstances. While Russia might launch a war with Ukraine to strengthen its homeland, the outcome of that war is more likely to weaken the Russian Federation.

Distributing the Ingress Charts

Abu Mashar instructs us to distribute the ingress chart Ascendant at a rate of 59’ 08” per day to time mundane events in the corresponding nations during the period of the ingress. As we assess the prospects for war or other difficulties, we look especially at aspects from the distributed ingress ASC to the infortunes, Mars and Saturn The distributed Ascendant of the Capricorn ingress for Ukraine makes its first hard aspect to an infortune as the square to Saturn Jan 10 through Feb 4. Saturn rules the 7th place of open enemies in the Capricorn ingress, and we would expect Saturn to correlate with tense periods of with a focus on logistics, preparation, setbacks. Indeed, this was an extremely tense time for Ukraine. On January 10, negotiations began between the United States and Russia in Geneva to stave off an invasion of Ukraine. On Jan 14, a massive cyber attack knocked out key government websites in Ukraine–which Kiev said it had evidence to suggest was executed by Russia. On Jan 17, Russian troops began exercises in Belarus, raising the prospect of a two-front offensive in an invasion of Ukraine. On 3 February, the United States said it had information that Russia was planning to use a fabricated video of a purported Ukrainian fake attack to justify an invasion of Ukraine.

Looking down the road, the next hard aspect from the distributed Capricorn ingress ASC to an infortune will be the square to Mars February 16 through February 24. This period falls right at the end of the Beijing Olympics, and is within the freeze along the Pripet Marshes that would permit Russian forces in Belarus to invade from the north. Mars rules the 10th place of the Ukrainian government and its leadership, suggesting this could be a very difficult time in Kiev, when the leadership of the country could be embattled, or even under direct attack. Note that this comes precisely as transiting Mars conjoins the ASC of Ukraine’s natal chart, one of the leading indications of potential conflict in Ukraine during the month of February.

Turning to Russia’s Libra ingress chart, the distributed ASC conjoined Mars January 28-31. Mars rules the 10th place of the Russian government and its international reputation, and on January 31, it was the focus of a very high profile meeting of the UN Security Council called to warn Moscow not to violate Ukrainian territorial sovereignty. Russia insisted that it had no plans to invade Ukraine, but only days later faced accusations that it was preparing a “false flag” operation to justify an invasion. Is it possible that Russia made the final decision to invade Ukraine in late January, or that it inserted special forces into Ukraine at that time to prepare for an invasion in the coming weeks? This kind of covert preparation has been standard practice in preparing for Russian and Soviet invasions of the past. It is unlikely that we will ever be able to confirm whether this has happened or not, particularly on a precise date. But the conjunction with Mars at the end of January is intriguing.

There is not another hard aspect from the directed Libra ingress Ascendant to an infortune in the month of February, but it does trine Saturn Rx during the period Jan 31 to Feb 21. This could be a kind of strategic pause, as Russia is setting the pace of developments surrounding Ukraine. However, this trine to the lord of the place of war and open conflict could also be an indication of final Russian preparations ahead of an invasion. The distributed ASC conjoins Mercury, lord of the 12th and 3rd February 26 to March 18, bringing to mind the reports of the “false flag” operation revealed by U.S. intelligence at the start of February. Once again, our attention is drawn to the period of late February for possible hostilities.

By mid-March, Russia’s distributed Libra ingress ASC squares Saturn March 18-28. From Russia's perspective, this square to the lord of the 7th place of open conflict and war is more ominous than the earlier trine. It comes precisely when transiting Saturn is squaring Pluto in the nativity of the Russian Federation. Taken alongside the conjunction with Mercury above, the period from late February through late March does not look good for Russia, and it raises the prospect of unanticipated losses, setbacks, and consequences, most notably on its economy, business sector, and banks. If it does elect to commence an invasion of Ukraine in February, it will likely face the economic consequences of its actions swiftly in March. If it does not, as suggested earlier, it is possible that by March it could run into obstacles that prompt reassessment of prosecuting a war against Ukraine.

Let me reiterate in closing that this is purely a test of mundane astrological predictive techniques and whether they are capable of foreseeing the outcome of fast-moving and highly uncertain events. It is not difficult now at the start of February to see that many of the themes addressed here are already well underway. Their appearance in the astrological charts above certainly reinforces the effectiveness of the techniques, but in itself does not demonstrate their utility for prediction. This is why we have looked down the period between mid-February and mid-March, to see if the dates suggested, particularly by the transits and ingress distributions, prove to be turning point moments in the tense standoff between Ukraine and Russia. We will not have to wait long to find out, and I will endeavor to offer an updated reflection on how the predictions sorted out when the time comes.